Anthropic trades at 17x EV/NTM revenue despite 165% projected growth, a 65% discount to Palantir, which grows at 62% and commands 49x. The company went from a $1B to $30B valuation in 15 months, implying roughly $20B in trailing revenue and an estimated $50B in NTM revenue if it exits 2026 at an $80B run rate.
Four factors explain the gap. Capital intensity: Anthropic has raised $15B and burn continues, with comparable GPU infrastructure costing $6.2B annually at spot rates. Profitability uncertainty: GPUs account for 60-65% of AI data center capex per Goldman Sachs, and the market cannot yet determine whether Anthropic becomes high-margin software or a capital-heavy utility. Growth volatility: revenue spiked in March and April, but public markets price predictable curves, not spikes. Political risk: export controls, compute caps, and safety mandates could redraw the competitive map without warning.
The piece is worth reading in full not for the conclusion, which is that the discount is rational, but for the valuation methodology. Tunguz works through the NTM multiple construction step by step, making explicit the assumptions that private market participants are embedding in the $30B figure. If you price AI companies for a living, or want to understand how to, the arithmetic here is the point.
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