Disruption is not a single phenomenon. Benedict Evans uses a 2025 slide to make a precise comparative argument: Uber and Airbnb both used software to redefine existing markets, but the actual industry impact diverged sharply due to regulation, supply-side differences, and user behavior gaps. Roughly half the global hotel industry is business travel. Almost none of it moved to Airbnb.
The mechanism matters more than the label. Evans maps how Skype disrupted peripheral businesses without touching core telecoms, how online travel booking gutted travel agents while leaving airline fundamentals intact, and why generative AI will hit professional services far harder than it hits the cement industry. The slide he built for a live presentation is reproduced here, and it earns a look on its own terms.
The argument Evans is building toward is a diagnostic tool, not a taxonomy. The question is never whether disruption is happening. The question is what kind, to whom, through which mechanism, and at what speed. Read the original for the specifics on adverse selection between Uber drivers and Airbnb hosts. That detail alone reframes how you think about platform supply.
[READ ORIGINAL →]