Tech job openings are down 45% from the 2022 peak but up 16% since January 2026, from 227k to 264k. The recovery is real. It is also smaller than it looks. Companies are hiring again at a structurally lower baseline, not returning to prior levels.
The mechanism is invisible. A team that needed two engineers to hit its roadmap now ships with existing headcount, using Cursor, Claude Code, or Copilot to close the gap. The job posting never goes live. Block made the logic explicit by cutting 40% of its workforce at once. Jack Dorsey called it directly: smaller, flatter teams paired with intelligence tools change what it means to build and run a company. Most organizations are doing the same thing, just without the announcement.
The full piece is worth reading for one reason: it maps the lag between AI capability adoption and organizational restructuring. The gradual version, attrition plus unposted roles, looks benign until a missed quarter or board pressure forces the question. What took five years of slow adjustment compresses into one quarter. The seismic event is not a surprise. It is the accumulated weight of unposted jobs finally landing.
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