David Plouffe, Barack Obama's 2008 campaign manager and current Orchestra partner, argues that AI is on track to become the defining issue of the 2028 presidential race. The American public is not buying the industry's pitch. Economic anxiety, deep distrust of tech executives, and the unresolved damage from social media have created a political environment where AI is already losing before it has a chance to make its case.
The piece is worth reading for the specific mechanics Plouffe outlines: why the geopolitical China argument fails with ordinary voters, how parental fear about kids and chatbots is becoming a potent organizing issue, and what the data center siting fights reveal about how local politics can bottle up national ambitions. These are not abstract concerns. They are the raw material of ballot measures and legislative hearings.
The sharpest claim is the Vance prediction: Plouffe expects JD Vance to break publicly from Trump on AI by early 2027, a split that would restructure the Republican coalition's relationship with the tech industry entirely. That alone makes the full conversation required reading for anyone tracking how Washington will actually regulate this technology.
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