Google is a legal monopoly. A US court ruled this week that Google's default search contracts, paying Apple $20 billion and other partners $10 billion in 2022, totaling nearly 20% of its search ad revenue, illegally froze the market. Those deals cover 50% of US search queries: 28% on Apple devices, 19.4% on Android OEM and carrier defaults, and 2.3% on Mozilla. Microsoft spent $100 billion building Bing and captured 5% of US search traffic. The numbers alone explain why the court agreed.
The core mechanic is two compounding loops. Query volume improves result quality, which attracts more queries. Default placement captures volume before users choose. Google funds the second loop with profits from the first. Apple estimated it would cost $6 billion per year just to match Google's indexing infrastructure, before accounting for the query deficit that would still leave Bing-level results. The original article walks through exactly how these loops interact, and why even a well-funded challenger stays trapped on the wrong side.
The ruling is clear. The remedy is not. The court can order Google to stop TAC payments, which frees $30 billion annually and strips $20 billion from Apple's operating income. It can potentially mandate choice screens in Chrome, covering 20% of queries. It cannot directly compel Apple or Android OEMs, who are not parties to the case. EU-mandated Android choice screens did not meaningfully shift share. DOJ antitrust chief Jonathan Kanter has stated publicly that simply removing the payments without changing outcomes is not acceptable. Breakup reports are circulating. Nothing is settled.
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